Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 2%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: US Venezuela military strike 2025
News from various sources:
No relevant news found.
(Carolyn’s note: Perplexity failed to return any news stories, which it normally does to inform Claude, Mistral, and OpenAI. Also, OpenAI failed to return a base rate. However, Claude, Mistral, and OpenAI each found other news to inform their predictions, reported with high confidences below.)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.02 – confidence: 8)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.02 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.01 – confidence: 9)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.02
Base rate: 0.01 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
MAPD: 0.0066666666666667
Confidence: 8
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0
Reverse Mellers: 0.07
Theory of Mind: 0 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.03
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 2%
The consensus among the various AI analyses suggests that the likelihood of the US officially announcing a military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025 is exceedingly low. This conclusion is based on multiple factors, including the historically infrequent nature of US military strikes in Latin America and the absence of both geopolitical factors and credible intelligence indicating an imminent threat from Venezuela. Moreover, the short timeframe left in the year makes it logistically challenging to plan and execute such an operation without prior indications or leaks. However, it is acknowledged that unforeseen developments, such as emergency situations or sudden escalations in Venezuela-US relations, could potentially alter this prediction. Additionally, the possibility of covert or classified operations that might not be publicly disclosed immediately leaves a small room for error in the assessment.
Runtime: 98 seconds.
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Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Map of Venezuela, courtesy https://www.worldatlas.com/maps/venezuela
