Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman's Sudan conflict deaths forecast, Dec. 19, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

Less than 1,000: 1%

Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%

Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%

Between 5,000 and 8,000: 25%

Between 8,000 and 12,000: 30%

More than 12,000: 27%

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan 2025 conflict deaths
News from various sources:

In 2025, the conflict in Sudan continued to escalate, resulting in significant civilian casualties and humanitarian crises. A series of drone strikes in early December led to the deaths of over 100 people, including 63 children, in Kalogi, South Kordofan. These strikes hit a kindergarten, a hospital, and a government facility, according to sources such as the Sudan Doctors Network, who blamed the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for the attacks. The World Health Organization and UNICEF condemned the attacks, highlighting violations of international humanitarian law and calling for an end to violence and unrestricted access for humanitarian aid.

Since the conflict’s onset in April 2023, the World Health Organization reported that there have been 198 attacks on health facilities, resulting in the deaths of 1,735 healthcare workers and patients. Church leaders in Sudan and international organizations continue to advocate for peace and dialogue. The United Nations reported that over 14 million people have been displaced, underscoring one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises with 30 million people in need of assistance.

Efforts by the Sudan Relief Fund aim to provide essential resources in the regions of South Kordofan and the Nuba Mountains. Meanwhile, political tensions persist, exacerbated by allegations from Washington regarding chemical weapons use by the Sudanese government. Amidst these, the RSF declared a three-month truce to allow humanitarian aid to reach civilians, though effects and adherence remain uncertain.

In related developments, a drone strike killed six Bangladeshi UN peacekeepers in Kadugli, further illustrating the conflict’s reach and the corresponding international implications. Continued calls for global action to address the humanitarian needs and foster dialogue for peace are echoed by leaders and organizations worldwide.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their correctness, importance to the resolution of the question, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: In early December 2025, drone strikes in Kalogi, South Kordofan, resulted in over 100 deaths, including 63 children.
– **Correctness**: Truthfulness cannot be verified as it’s a future date. Hypothetical.
– **Importance**: Important. This event contributes to understanding the escalation of conflict-related deaths.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. This contributes to the number of conflict deaths reported.
2. **Fact**: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were blamed for the drone strikes by sources such as the Sudan Doctors Network.
– **Correctness**: Truthfulness cannot be verified as it’s a future date. Hypothetical.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. Attribution of attacks may not directly impact the number of deaths.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. This does not directly affect the number of deaths.
3. **Fact**: Since April 2023, the World Health Organization reported 198 attacks on health facilities in Sudan, with 1,735 healthcare workers and patients killed.
– **Correctness**: Truthfulness cannot be verified as it’s a future date. Hypothetical.
– **Importance**: Important. Contributes significantly to the state-based conflict death toll.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. This adds to the count of conflict deaths.
4. **Fact**: Over 14 million people have been displaced in Sudan since April 2023.
– **Correctness**: Truthfulness cannot be verified as it’s a future estimate. Hypothetical.
– **Importance**: Critical. Indicates the severity and scale of the conflict.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. While critical for context, it does not directly impact the number of reported deaths.
5. **Fact**: 30 million people in Sudan are in need of assistance.
– **Correctness**: Truthfulness cannot be verified as it’s a future estimate. Hypothetical.
– **Importance**: Important for context, but not direct to death count.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. Relevant for humanitarian crisis context but not death toll.
6. **Fact**: RSF declared a three-month truce to allow humanitarian aid, with uncertain adherence and effects.
– **Correctness**: Truthfulness cannot be verified as it’s a future event. Hypothetical.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. Potentially impacts future conflict deaths but not current data.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. Future adherence to truces does not affect historical death data.
7. **Fact**: Six Bangladeshi UN peacekeepers were killed by a drone strike in Kadugli.
– **Correctness**: Truthfulness cannot be verified as it’s a future date. Hypothetical.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. Contributes to death toll but limited impact on overall numbers.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Adds to reported conflict deaths.
8. **Fact**: There are allegations of chemical weapons use by the Sudanese government.
– **Correctness**: Truthfulness cannot be verified as it’s a potential future claim. Hypothetical.
– **Importance**: Unimportant. Allegations may not affect the count of conflict deaths directly.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. Does not directly affect the death toll.

In summary, facts that mention specific numbers of deaths, attacks, and casualties are more relevant to determining the ACLED reported deaths, whereas context and political developments, while important for a comprehensive understanding, do not directly affect the number. Specific figures would need data from actual future reports for verification.

Fact-checked summary:
The question asks how many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED in Sudan in 2025. As much of the information provided involves future dates and thus cannot be verified, none of the listed facts are definitively true or verified. Accordingly, specific figures or verified events cannot be provided at this time. Instead, the fictional future events mentioned, such as drone strikes and attacks, serve as hypothetical scenarios and cannot be used to concretely answer the original question regarding ACLED’s reports.

OpenAI gives a base rate of percentage chance of civilian deaths exceeding 8,000
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.40.2-0.10.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
We begin by considering historical factors. Assuming a base probability of 0.25 based on past years’ data where similar conditions yielded Over 8000 deaths, we apply adjustments: Recent Conflict Spike (0.4), giving us 0.35. Add 0.2 for Seasonal Variation, resulting in 0.37. Subtract 0.1 for Diplomatic Efforts resulting in 0.36. Finally, add 0.3 for Previous Year Death Toll, yielding 0.39 as posterior probability.
Bayesian base rate: 0.39 (39% likelihood of deaths in 2025 exceeding 8,000)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 7
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers historical conflict patterns in Sudan, which have frequently resulted in high death tolls. By examining the factors like the previous year’s death toll, seasonal variations, and ongoing military operations, we posited an informed base rate.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
To improve forecasting accuracy, information on changes in military strategies, real-time diplomatic developments, and detailed on-ground conflict reports would be essential.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Diplomatic efforts in late 2025 might alter the prediction if peace agreements succeed, or if there is significant international intervention which stabilizes the region, lowering deaths below the base rate expectations.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued political instability in Sudan, likelihood: High

– Escalation of current conflicts into more violent clashes, likelihood: Moderate

– International diplomatic failures to broker peace, likelihood: Moderate to High
– Insufficient humanitarian aid reaching conflict areas, likelihood: Moderate

– Foreign intervention or military support exacerbating conflict, likelihood: Low to Moderate

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.12, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.32, “More than 12000”: 0.25] – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.25, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.35] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.09, Max: 0.16666666666667
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 25%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 30%
More than 12,000: 27%

The predictions regarding the death toll in Sudan’s ongoing civil war in 2025 stem from historical conflict data and recent trends, with expectations of continued high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Previous years have seen high casualty rates, and with urban warfare, displacement, and limited humanitarian access, high numbers of deaths are anticipated. Historical data from ACLED suggests that annual death tolls often exceed 5,000, with recent patterns indicating 2024 experienced significant casualties. A range of factors, including failed diplomatic efforts, foreign involvement, and the conflict’s entrenched nature, suggest a likely death toll between 5,000 and 12,000+. Nonetheless, unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs, effective peace negotiations, or changes in international support could significantly alter these predictions. Adjustments in ACLED’s reporting or underestimations due to inaccessible regions might also
impact reported figures, suggesting a degree of uncertainty in the predictions.
Runtime: 194 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.