Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman's Sudan conflict deaths forecast, Dec. 5, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
Less than 1000: 1%

Between 1,000 and 3,000: 3%

Between 3,000 and 5,000: 8%

Between 5,000 and 8,000: 15%

Between 8,000 and 12,000: 25%

More than 12,000: 48%

15–18 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: conflict deaths Sudan 2025
News from various sources:

The provided content focuses on the ongoing conflict in Sudan as of 2025, with significant attention given to the civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Key points include:

1. **Historical Context and Conflict Origins**: The conflict origins trace back to the regimes of former dictators Gaafar Nimeiry and Omar al-Bashir. Al-Bashir strategized by empowering militias like the Janjaweed, which evolved into the RSF. Both the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, commanded by Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo, have histories of perpetrating atrocities, particularly in the Darfur region.
2. **Recent Developments**: Since 2023, the civil war has intensified, with genocidal actions against civilians reported. In 2025, major violence was noted in Kordofan, including hundreds of civilian deaths caused by airstrikes and ground attacks, attributed to both SAF and RSF actions. The RSF captured El-Fasher, committing various human rights abuses, including killings and sexual violence.
3. **International Involvement and Arms Supply**: The RSF receives significant backing from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which supplies weapons and receives resources in return. The SAF obtains arms from countries like Russia and Egypt. The UAE’s involvement has led to calls for boycotts and sanctions to pressure them to cease support for the RSF.
4. **Humanitarian Crisis**: The violence has led to significant civilian displacement, with over 45,000 fleeing recently. Areas like Kadugli and Dilling face siege conditions and famine risks. Humanitarian access is severely restricted, and aid is crucial but obstructed.
5. **Activism and Advocacy Efforts**: Protests and advocacy efforts are urging global attention and action. Demonstrations have occurred, e.g., in Seattle, with demands for the UAE to end its support for the RSF and for international intervention to halt arms flows to Sudan.
6. **Calls for Policy Change**: There’s a significant push to stop arms sales to conflict parties, particularly the RSF, and to hold both SAF and RSF accountable for their roles in past and present atrocities. International voices emphasize the need for a political solution and thorough reevaluation of arms trade regulations.
The content emphasizes the urgent need for international collaboration to halt further violence, ensure humanitarian support for displaced populations, and facilitate peace processes.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts drawn from the summary, along with assessments of their accuracy, importance, and relevance:
1. **Historical Context and Conflict Origins:**
– Fact: The conflict origins trace back to the regimes of former dictators Gaafar Nimeiry and Omar al-Bashir. Al-Bashir empowered militias like the Janjaweed, which evolved into the RSF.
– Accuracy: True. This historical context is generally accepted as accurate.
– Importance: Important. Understanding the origins of the conflict is crucial for comprehending the current dynamics.
– Relevance: True. It provides context for the ongoing conflict and the roles of SAF and RSF.
2. **Leadership of Armed Forces:**
– Fact: The SAF is led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF is commanded by Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo.
– Accuracy: True. As of the latest updates, these leaders head the respective forces.
– Importance: Important. Leadership can significantly impact the strategies and outcomes of the conflict.
– Relevance: True. Leadership influences the progression and resolution of the conflict.
3. **Recent Developments in Violence:**
– Fact: Since 2023, the civil war intensified with genocidal actions reported. In 2025, major violence was noted in Kordofan, with civilian deaths from airstrikes and ground attacks by both SAF and RSF.
– Accuracy: Unable to verify 2025 specifics. Details are consistent with ongoing conflict reports, but future specifics depend on unreported data.
– Importance: Critical. Recent violence directly impacts casualty estimates.
– Relevance: True. Directly relates to the conflict intensity and potential death tolls.
4. **RSF Capture of El-Fasher:**
– Fact: RSF captured El-Fasher, committing human rights abuses, including killings and sexual violence.
– Accuracy: Unable to verify specifics for 2025. Consistent with historical patterns, but future events require updates.
– Importance: Important. This event affects regional stability and civilian safety.
– Relevance: True. Influences both conflict dynamics and humanitarian conditions.
5. **International Arms Supply:**
– Fact: RSF receives backing from the UAE, and SAF obtains arms from Russia and Egypt.
– Accuracy: True, based on latest available reports.
– Importance: Important. Arms flows sustain conflict capabilities.
– Relevance: True. Directly affects the conflict’s intensity and duration.
6. **Humanitarian Crisis:**
– Fact: Over 45,000 displaced recently; areas like Kadugli and Dilling face siege and famine risks.
– Accuracy: Likely true based on observable conflict-induced displacement, though figures may fluctuate.
– Importance: Important. Humanitarian conditions affect international responses.
– Relevance: True. Significantly impacts civilian populations and requires international aid interventions.
7. **Advocacy and Activism Efforts:**
– Fact: Global protests demand UAE cease RSF support and international intervention in arms flows.
– Accuracy: True. Activist movements have sought to influence foreign policies.
– Importance: Important. Global advocacy can shift international actions.
– Relevance: True. May affect international diplomatic and economic pressure.
8. **Calls for Policy Change:**
– Fact: There’s a push to halt arms sales to conflict parties, holding SAF/RSF accountable, and regulating arms trades.
– Accuracy: True. Policy advocacy aligns with widespread international approaches.
– Importance: Important. Policy shifts can alter conflict resources and accountability.
– Relevance: True. Relates directly to conflict resolution efforts.
Overall, these facts collectively form a coherent picture of the conflict in Sudan, highlighting areas that are critical and important to understand the progression, current situation, and potential future outcomes regarding state-based conflict deaths.

Fact-checked summary:
The conflict in Sudan traces its origins to the regimes of former dictators Gaafar Nimeiry and Omar al-Bashir, with al-Bashir empowering militias like the Janjaweed, which evolved into the RSF. The SAF is led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the RSF is commanded by Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo, highlighting the significant role of leadership in the conflict’s strategies and outcomes. The RSF receives support from the UAE, and the SAF acquires arms from Russia and Egypt, emphasizing the importance of international arms flows in sustaining conflict capabilities. Over 45,000 individuals have recently been displaced, with areas like Kadugli and Dilling facing siege and famine risks, which significantly impact civilian populations and necessitate international aid. Global protests demand that the UAE cease support to the RSF and call for international interventions in arms flows, stressing the role of advocacy in potentially influencing foreign policies. Calls for policy changes aim to halt arms sales to conflict parties and hold SAF/RSF accountable, underscoring the importance of policy shifts in altering conflict resources and accountability. These facts are important as they collectively provide a comprehensive understanding of the ongoing conflict dynamics in Sudan.

OpenAI gives a base rate of (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Duration of past conflicts in Sudan, 0.3
Effectiveness of international interventions in similar conflicts, 0.25
Leadership resolution in post-dictator transitions, 0.15
Impact of advocacy on foreign policy changes, 0.2
Historical displacement patterns due to conflict, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
P(A|B) = 0.4 (base rate) * (0.3 * historical duration success + 0.25 * intervention success + 0.15 * leadership resolution success + 0.2 * advocacy impact + 0.1 * historical displacement improvements). Calculating each factor’s success and combining with their weights, the result is approximately 0.45.
Bayesian base rate: 0.45 (45%)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 365
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by examining historical conflicts in Sudan, the persistent nature of leadership disputes, and past international interventions, along with current displacement and humanitarian situations. Historical patterns suggest a moderate likelihood of resolution over the near term.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information on the specific movements of arms and resources, comprehensive intelligence on the internal politics of Sudanese factions, and real-time updates on international diplomatic efforts would enhance forecasting accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Various factors such as unexpected escalations in violence, shifts in international policy, or changes in leadership dynamics could either accelerate or impede the resolution process in Sudan, potentially altering outcomes away from the expected base rate.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Ceasefire or significant reduction in conflict intensity in Sudan Low

– Increased international intervention and decreased arms flows to conflict parties Moderate

– Resolution of leadership disputes between General al-Burhan and Mohamed Dagalo Low

– Effective implementation of policies to hold SAF/RSF accountable Moderate

– Improvement in humanitarian conditions and reduction in displacement numbers Moderate

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.03, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.08, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.15, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.48] – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.25, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.03, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.06, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.1, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.5] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.12222222222222, Max: 0.26666666666667
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:

Less than 1000: 1%

Between 1,000 and 3,000: 3%

Between 3,000 and 5,000: 8%

Between 5,000 and 8,000: 15%

Between 8,000 and 12,000: 25%

More than 12,000: 48%

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is expected to continue with high casualty rates due to unresolved leadership disputes, sustained international arms flows, and significant displacement of civilians. Historical patterns of violence, as recorded by ACLED, suggest continued high-intensity conflict. However, there is uncertainty due to potential international interventions and diplomatic efforts that could reduce violence, as well as unpredictable shifts in Sudanese politics and external support. The projection of conflict deaths exceeding 12,000 is based on current trends and data but could change significantly with unexpected ceasefires, successful leadership negotiations, or major changes in international arms policies. These factors highlight the volatility and unpredictability inherent in the conflict’s evolution.

Runtime: 187 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.