Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman's forecast of Dec. 22, 2025

Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 8%

Obtaining outside data.

Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas Gaza ceasefire

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire Gaza
News from various sources:

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has intensified following the Israeli strike that killed Raed Saad, a senior Hamas commander, on December 13, 2025. Israel claims that Saad was a key figure in rebuilding Hamas’s military capabilities and involved in attacks against Israel, which they argue violated the ceasefire agreement established in October. Hamas, however, views the killing as a serious breach of the ceasefire, threatening the viability of the agreement, and has called on the United States, particularly President Donald Trump, to intervene and ensure Israel’s compliance.

This assassination has heightened tensions and highlighted the fragility of the ceasefire. The agreement’s first phase included halting hostilities, exchanging captives, returning remains of the deceased, and allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza. The second phase, which has yet to begin due to ongoing disputes, aims for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, disarmament of Palestinian factions, and a formal end to the conflict.

Israel is adamant that this phase cannot proceed without the return of Ran Gvili’s remains, the last Israeli captive unaccounted for. Meanwhile, Israeli actions in Gaza have led to significant casualties and accusations of continued ceasefire violations. Since the ceasefire in October, approximately 800 Israeli attacks have been conducted in Gaza, resulting in hundreds of Palestinian deaths and a critical humanitarian situation due to restricted aid.

The conflict remains unresolved, with ongoing accusations and counteraccusations from both sides, raising fears that the fragile peace could collapse entirely. Additionally, Gaza remains divided, and various militant groups are vying for control and influence in the post-war environment. The situation is complicated by conflicting interests between Israel and its allies, notably the U.S., regarding the pace and conditions of implementing the ceasefire agreement.

Fact-checking news summary:
Fact-check did not return a result. Using news summary.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 10%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Success of past ceasefires in similar conflicts, 0.2
Political will from Israel and Hamas for peace, 0.15
U.S. involvement in mediation, 0.25
Internal pressures within Hamas and Israel, 0.1
International pressure, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors table, a prior probability of 0.1 is adjusted by estimating likelihoods of mediation, political factors, and past success in ceasefires. Applying Bayesian principles, considering international pressure as a significant factor with current events, increases the probability to 0.15.
Bayesian base rate: 15%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 60
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was derived from the historical success rate of ceasefire agreements holding after violations in the region. Past agreements have frequently been violated, indicating a low probability that the ceasefire survives intact following major incidents like the assassination of a key figure.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional insights into the internal decision-making processes within Hamas and the Israeli government would be useful. Information on the role of other regional or global powers could also provide a clearer picture of the external pressures influencing the conflict.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential interventions by international actors, especially the United States, could significantly alter the likelihood of maintaining the ceasefire. Possible shifts in internal political dynamics within Israel or Hamas could also impact the situation unpredictably.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Israel agrees to negotiate with Hamas post-strike. Low

– Hamas refrains from retaliation and recommits to the ceasefire. Low

– International mediation is successful, especially involving the U.S. Moderate

– Significant U.S. pressure on Israel to adhere to ceasefire terms. Moderate

– Return of Ran Gvili’s remains. Very Low

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.08 – confidence: 2)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 4)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.08
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.09
MAPD: 0.13333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.03
Reverse Mellers: 0.17
Theory of Mind: 0 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.5
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 8%

The reasoning of various AIs indicates a low likelihood of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holding by the end of 2025, primarily due to historical patterns of ceasefire collapses and recent escalatory events, such as the assassination of senior Hamas commander Raed Saad, which has significantly heightened tensions. Key issues undermining the ceasefire include unresolved disputes like the retrieval of Ran Gvili’s remains and restricted humanitarian aid, compounded by Israel’s military actions and conditional demands. However, the possibility of international intervention, especially by the U.S. under Donald Trump, could alter the trajectory. Unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs or changes in political dynamics within the involved parties could restore stability, particularly if the short timeframe discourages further major incidents, or if parties recognize the catastrophic costs of collapse.

Runtime: 276 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>